U.S. economy grows 2.7% amid global slowdown
A recent report from Bloomberg showed that the U.S. economy is showing strong growth as 2024 comes to an end, and experts expect the government's preliminary estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) to show a substantial annualized growth of 2.7%. Also Read: Dollar Hits All-Time Highs Amid Fed Signal This booming growth has been driven largely by healthy consumer spending, fueled by a strong labor market, and a significant gap between the U.S. and other global economies. U.S. personal consumption of goods and services is expected to maintain an annualized growth rate of more than 3% for the second consecutive quarter. In sharp contrast, the European economy has fallen into a downturn. Recent forecasts suggest that the French economy will stagnate by the end of 2024, Germany will contract slightly, and overall euro zone growth will continue a multi-year trend of modest expansion. Specifically, the Eurozone's fourth-quarter GDP growth is expected to be only 0.1%, further highlighting the gap…
U.S. national debt will increase by $23.9 trillion
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the U.S. national debt will increase by $23.9 trillion over the next 10 years. This forecast on Yahoo Finance ignores the impact of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tax cuts, which could add trillions of dollars. Also read: Economic impact of US TikTok ban While increases in taxable revenue have provided some relief, the Congressional Budget Office's latest 10-year budget outlook paints a challenging fiscal picture. The annual budget deficit is expected to reach 6.1% of U.S. GDP by 2035, significantly higher than the 50-year average of 3.8%. The Trump administration, which aims to extend the 2017 tax cuts, faces a potential deficit of more than $4 trillion without significant spending cuts. New Treasury Secretary candidate Scott Bessant has warned that failure to implement tax cuts could lead to a recession. The Congressional Budget Office's forecast deficit is slightly lower than previous estimates, primarily due to an expected increase in taxable revenue. However,…
Canadian provinces brace for rising U.S. borrowing costs
Canadian provinces are bracing for rising borrowing costs as looming U.S. tariffs threaten to curb economic growth. Bloomberg reported that shrinking trade could lead to lower provincial tax revenues, potentially higher borrowing needs and lead to higher provincial debt risk premiums. Also read: U.S. companies hoard Chinese goods amid tariff uncertainty Dominic Lapointe, director of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management, said the impact of potential tariffs is not yet reflected in provincial debt spreads but could soon exacerbate financial challenges. Analysts including Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce expect that even a 20 per cent tariff could widen provincial spreads on the 10-year Treasury note by as much as 12 basis points. With provinces expected to borrow about $135 billion in fiscal 2025, the additional borrowing costs could translate into about $162 million in additional interest per year. Ontario, Canada's largest province, recently sold C$750 million in bonds, a 60 basis point spread over the government's benchmark. This highlights investor…
Samsung and LG consider moving production to U.S.
South Korean electronics giants Samsung and LG are considering strategically moving some of their home appliance manufacturing operations from Mexico to the United States. According to Reuters, there were recent reports that both companies are seeking to mitigate the potential impact of a possible 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, as U.S. President Donald Trump considers it. Samsung Electronics is evaluating moving its dryer production from Mexico to a plant in South Carolina. Meanwhile, LG Electronics is evaluating a similar move at its refrigerator manufacturing, possibly relocating it to a factory in Tennessee that already makes washers and dryers. This strategic move is underlined by IndexBox data, which highlights changes in global manufacturing and trade patterns, underscoring the importance of production system agility and adaptability to geopolitical factors. Both companies said they would continue to respond to market changes, with Samsung saying it planned to closely monitor developments and adjust its international operations accordingly. Likewise, LG Electronics aims…
U.S. Interest in Greenland – The Case for Shipping and Reserves
The media is in tears over President Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland. Few would argue that the president's rhetoric has always been measured. Part of his appeal lies in his off-the-cuff remarks, which in turn create news and spark debate. As a marketer, the president is probably one of the best marketers of all time. Staying relevant is the point. Also read: Global shipping markets face turmoil as tanker rates soar on China routes Yet behind the 15-second Greenland quip lay the strategic dimension of Trump's desire for an Arctic behemoth. More than three times the size of Texas, Greenland is attractive due to its proximity to emerging shipping routes, vast undiscovered oil and gas reserves and rare earth deposits. China's growing advances and Russia's proximity have unsettled the president, and a more established U.S. presence in Greenland, or an outright acquisition of the territory, appears to be on the incoming administration's table. shipping box As the Earth warms, melting…
U.S. companies will earn more than European companies
U.S. companies will outperform their European peers in the upcoming earnings season JPMorgan strategists predict that U.S. companies will significantly outpace their European peers in profit growth this earnings season. For detailed insights, you can visit the original source here. Lower expectations for S&P 500 companies played a crucial role as analysts slashed their forecasts despite strong U.S. economic growth. Also read: Economic impact of US TikTok ban European expectations bring challenges In contrast, European companies face "much stronger" expectations, strategist Mislav Matejka said. This situation could cause difficulties for European companies, especially given the differences in the momentum of activity across regions. The situation creates additional risks for European stocks, especially after one of the most challenging years for the region's stock market performance relative to the United States. There are differences in performance indicators Last year, the Stoxx 600 lagged the S&P 500 by more than 17 percentage points, its second-worst relative performance since 1998. Factors such as…
U.S. invests $1 billion in domestic lithium supply
The United States approved a nearly $1 billion loan to Australian mining company Ioneer to build its lithium processing plant in Nevada to ensure the security of its domestic lithium supply chain. Mining.com details the key move, which is part of outgoing President Joe Biden's strategy to reduce U.S. reliance on China, the market leader in lithium production and exports. The loan will facilitate construction of a plant planned to produce 22,000 tons of lithium per year by 2028, strategically supplying auto giants such as Ford and other electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers. The DOE loan and ongoing mitigation efforts are designed to address such global changes and secure lithium resources as part of a broader agenda to promote a sustainable and independent electric vehicle industry in the United States. Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
The economic impact of the U.S. ban on TikTok
The impending U.S. ban on TikTok could cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars and disrupt a vital platform for millions of U.S. businesses and social media entrepreneurs. According to a report from Yahoo Finance, the app's disappearance won't have a major impact on the overall U.S. economy, but could hurt the booming sub-economy built around it. Also read: China considers selling TikTok's US operations to Elon Musk Data from the IndexBox platform shows that TikTok has approximately 170 million U.S. users, its influence spans various industries, and will contribute more than $24 billion to the U.S. economy by 2023. Although TikTok reportedly generates more than $20 billion in annual revenue, this figure remains difficult to verify. The app's impact is evident in individual cases, such as Ella Livingston's Cocoa Asante in Chattanooga, Tenn., which risks losing $25,000 in monthly sales and potentially forcing part-time workers to be laid off. In addition, TikTok's digital store's gross merchandise value in the…
World Bank warns of proposed global economic impact
The World Bank has issued a warning report on the impact of proposed U.S. tariffs, suggesting global economic growth could be hampered if countries retaliate with tariffs of their own. According to Reuters, the imposition of a comprehensive 10% tariff may further reduce global economic growth in 2025 by 0.3 percentage points from the expected 2.7%. In addition, potential retaliation could reduce the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.9%, or 2.3%. Also read: World Bank warns it could take more than a century to end poverty in half the world The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report highlights that the global economic outlook is essentially stagnant, with growth rates of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, the same as in 2024. Additionally, IndexBox data shows a significant increase in global trade restrictions, now five times greater between 2010 and 2019. Combined with the fact that foreign direct investment in developing economies has halved since the early 2000s, it paints…
Eaton fire poses credit risk to Southern California Edison
Eaton fire threatens Southern California Edison's credit rating The Eaton Fire has destroyed more than 14,000 acres in central Los Angeles County since Jan. 7, raising serious credit risk concerns for Southern California Edison (SCE), the region's main power supplier. SCE's financial stability could be affected by the location of its operations near where destructive fires originate, according to a report from Moody's Ratings. Potential Liability and the Role of SCE Although multiple lawsuits have been filed against SCE, investigations are ongoing and an official cause of the fire has not yet been determined. The plaintiffs claim the initial flames may have been caused by the utility company's equipment. SCE, a subsidiary of Edison International, insists there is currently no evidence linking its infrastructure to the fire. Financial impact and market reaction Moody's outlined that the state wildfire fund and the mechanism by which California utilities recover fire-related expenses currently support SCE's credit profile. However, this could be undermined if…
As China market slows, luxury brands shift focus to U.S.
Luxury brands look to the U.S. as China market weakens Global luxury goods companies are gearing up to woo U.S. consumers with lavish diamond jewelry and exquisite leather handbags amid forecasts of a softening market in China. Retail executives aim to capitalize on wealth generated by a strong performance in U.S. stocks and rising cryptocurrencies, according to a report from Yahoo Finance. Tariffs proposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump are also expected to boost the dollar and increase Americans' purchasing power for European luxury goods. The strategic shift comes as the 363 billion euro ($373.16 billion) global luxury goods market faces its slowest sales in recent years. China's economic downturn and real estate crisis have dampened demand for luxury goods, while rising living costs in Europe have curbed luxury spending. The industry has endured stock market turmoil after the post-pandemic spending spree fell, but is now bracing for potential weakness, with LVMH's market capitalization losing more than 30 billion euros…
U.S. and Norway unite to increase transparency
The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries have jointly released an innovative report analyzing how non-market policies and practices (NMPP) impact global critical minerals markets. The study, known as the NMPP Report, highlights the challenges posed by practices in some third countries that distort markets for minerals necessary for sustainable technologies. Also Read: Commerce Department Expands Advocacy Efforts to Boost U.S. Global Competitiveness The report, led by the International Trade Administration's Industry and Analysts team, marks an important step forward in the United States and Norway's shared goal of promoting sustainable, market-driven mining and processing activities. “Securing critical minerals supply chains is critical to national security and economic competitiveness,” said Grant Harris, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Analysis. “This report provides a detailed assessment of how the NMPP is disrupting these important markets, guiding market-oriented economies and industry partners to strengthen supply chain resilience.” The NMPP report explores the mineral supply…
China considers selling TikTok U.S. operations to Elon
Chinese authorities are reportedly considering selling TikTok's U.S. operations to Elon Musk, a major development. For more details, the original report can be accessed here. According to Bloomberg, the move is a strategic response if the popular social media app faces a potential ban in the United States. The expected deal could significantly reshape the competitive dynamics of the social media landscape. Data from the IndexBox platform, which reaches millions of users every day, underscores the growing economic impact of TikTok in the United States. Speculation about a sale to a high-profile entrepreneur like Elon Musk underscores the platform's global importance and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting technology companies. Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
U.S. rail industry faces uncertain future amid economic climate
The U.S. railroad industry faces a future filled with great uncertainty while grappling with numerous economic and policy challenges, according to the Association of American Railroads' (AAR) latest annual railroad industry outlook. This comprehensive report highlights the impact of likely changes to fiscal policy, trade, immigration, taxation and regulatory frameworks heading into 2025. Also read: U.S. container imports strong in December 2024, but potential challenges loom in 2025 Despite widespread uncertainty, the rail industry ended 2024 strong, with intermodal volumes reaching its third-highest annual figure. Data from the IndexBox platform shows that although coal shipments continue to decline, consumer spending supported by a strong labor market has played a key role in this growth. Excluding coal, cargo volumes increased slightly in December, a significant achievement as this growth trajectory has not been seen since 2018. AAR's Freight Rail Index (FRI), which tracks seasonally adjusted intermodal volumes and vehicle loads excluding coal and grain, rose 2.2% month over month in December.…
U.S. inflation shows signs of cooling, but caution remains
Although the Federal Reserve remains cautious on cutting interest rates, underlying U.S. inflation appears to be cooling slightly at the end of 2024. According to a recent report from Bloomberg, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy is expected to rise 0.2% in December, after rising 0.3% in the previous four months. Core CPI, a more accurate measure of underlying inflation, is expected to rise 3.3% year over year, unchanged from the past three months. Also read: CMA CGM defers peak season surcharge on shipments to US Although inflationary pressures appear to be stalling, the job market continues to perform strongly. Government data showed more than 250,000 jobs were added in December, beating expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. A strong job market coupled with resilient consumer demand has not dampened long-term inflation expectations, with a University of Michigan survey highlighting that 22% of respondents plan to buy big-ticket items now to avoid future price increases, a…
U.S. ports expected to end the year strong
Container traffic through U.S. ports is set to end strong, signaling a strong improvement in the outlook for 2025. Shippers hoarding imported cargo to avoid potential disruptions fueled the year-end surge, according to a recent report from Yahoo Finance. As suggested by the National Retail Federation, there are labor concerns and upcoming tariffs in the new year. Also read: U.S. container shipping faces headwinds as peak season approaches In November, U.S. ports handled 2.17 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), according to data from Global Port Tracking. The data, which does not include the ports of New York and New Jersey, was down 3.2% from October's data but up 14.7% year-on-year. NRF expects December throughput to increase to 2.24 million TEU, a 19.2% year-on-year increase, which could push the full-year total to 25.6 million TEU, 15.2% higher than the 2023 record. A potential crisis was averted as port employers and unionized dockworkers agreed on automating container handling, averting an imminent strike…
CMA CGM postpones peak season surcharges for U.S. routes
In a major update for ocean shippers, CMA CGM is deferring peak season surcharges on several routes to the United States. The news, first reported by Yahoo Finance, highlights the fourth postponement of a $1,000 surcharge on service departing from the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East Gulf, the Red Sea and Egypt to the U.S. Eastern and Gulf Coast. Also read: CMA CGM delays key U.S. shipping surcharge amid contract talks The French shipping giant's surcharge is thought to reflect the increased costs of maintaining operations amid security concerns in the Red Sea, where CMA CGM vessels remain one of the few still sailing despite the risks posed by attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen. One of the carriers. The company has aligned with global early-loading trends ahead of the Lunar New Year, when Asian factories typically close for extended periods starting on January 29. The strategic move comes at a time when ocean carrier alliances and vessel-sharing agreements are…
Airfares falling in 2025: U.S. flights to Asia now increasing
Planning an international trip this year? That's good news for travelers willing to venture far and wide, as long-haul flights have become even more affordable compared to last year. Prices for flights from the U.S. to Asia have dropped 11%, with the average ticket now sitting at $1,087, according to data released by flight tracking company Hopper. At the same time, production capacity is expected to increase by 6% by mid-2025. Also read: International air travel demand surges in 2024 Savvy travelers can also find more affordable flights to Europe, with prices dropping 6% to an average of $754. However, flights to Africa and the Middle East remained stable, while routes to South America were 4% cheaper at about $685. IndexBox data further confirms these trends, highlighting the overall growth in flight search interest and capacity expansion in popular hotspots around the world. While airfares to Africa and the Middle East are flat, tour operators are seeing strong demand from…
ILA and USMX enter into six-year contract agreement to ensure safety
The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reached a tentative six-year prime contract, averting a potential supply chain crisis at Eastern and Gulf Coast ports. The deal, finalized just days before a crucial Jan. 15 deadline, ensures stability for an industry vital to the U.S. economy. Also read: Strike fears, tariff plans drive early import surge at U.S. ports The breakthrough comes after months of tension, including a three-day strike in October that ended with a temporary contract extension and an agreement on a pay rise. However, the divisive issue of port automation remains unresolved to this day. In a joint statement, the two sides emphasized the contract's dual focus on safeguarding jobs and embracing modernization. “This agreement protects current jobs at ILA and establishes a framework to implement technologies that will create additional jobs while modernizing the Eastern and Gulf Coast ports. These measures make operations safer and more efficient, and be ready…
U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling amid low layoffs
A recent survey showed that the U.S. labor market continues to show signs of slowing down, although layoffs remain very low. Private payrolls rose by just 122,000 in December, ADP data showed, down from 144,000 in November. The slowing pace of job creation comes as a broader trend reflects a "no hire, don't fire" stagnation, with labor market indicators showing a cooling trend. The U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims fell to 201,000 in the week ended January 4, which was not only a decrease from the previous week, but also lower than the 215,000 expected. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson attributed the labor market's current stability to low layoffs and declining resignations, which suggest workers are becoming increasingly cautious. The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that the hiring rate fell slightly to 3.3% from 3.4% in October, while the turnover rate fell to 1.9% from 2.1%. Both indicators are currently well below…
US targets Chinese maritime giants: COSCO and shipbuilding groups
Strict scrutiny of China's shipping and shipbuilding industries The United States has added China's largest shipping company Cosco Shipping Holdings Ltd. and two major shipbuilding companies, China State Shipbuilding Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Trading Co., Ltd., to its military blacklist. The move, announced through a Federal Register filing, reflects growing concerns about the companies' alleged ties to China's People's Liberation Army (PLA). While the blacklist imposes no direct penalties, it serves as a deterrent for U.S. companies from engaging with listed entities and signals heightened scrutiny of China’s dominant maritime sector. Geopolitical tensions heighten concerns over shipbuilding dominance China's shipping industry, which accounts for more than half of global merchant ship production, has become a focus of geopolitical competition between Beijing and Washington. U.S. Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi said U.S. officials have repeatedly expressed concerns about the gap in shipbuilding capabilities between the two countries, with China building one U.S. container ship for every 359 it produces. The Pentagon's blacklist…
Imports surge, U.S. trade deficit widens significantly
The U.S. trade deficit rose sharply in November, driven by the largest increase in imports since March 2022. As noted, this development is largely attributable to companies speeding up shipments to avoid potential disruption from the upcoming dockworkers strike and potential tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In a report by Bloomberg. Also read: Post-Christmas rejection surge in U.S. truckload market Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the trade deficit in goods and services expanded 6.2% from the previous month to $78.2 billion. The figure was in line with the median forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Imports increased by 3.4% to US$351.6 billion, and exports increased by 2.7%. These figures are not adjusted for inflation. The broad import surge included consumer goods, capital equipment and motor vehicles. The trend reflects strategic moves by U.S. companies to ensure transportation security in anticipation of potential trade barriers and disruptions. The looming mid-January deadline for dockworkers to reach…
Panasonic Energy plans to adjust supply chain strategy
Panasonic Energy, a key supplier to Tesla, has announced a strategic move to eliminate dependence on China for the supply of U.S.-made electric vehicle batteries. According to Yahoo Finance, this major shift highlights the company's determination to face the challenges posed by possible U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Also Read: Managing Tariff Rise in 2025: A Strategy Guide for Savvy Importers Allan Swan, president of Panasonic Energy North America, stressed that moving supply chains away from China has become a top priority, especially in light of upcoming policies. In an interview at the CES trade show in Las Vegas, Swan laid out the company's strategy to strengthen its manufacturing processes within the United States, where it already has operations in Nevada and plans to build a new factory in Kansas. According to the IndexBox platform, Japan’s lithium-ion battery exports reached an impressive US$3.1 billion in 2023. A large portion of these exports, valued at $1.6 billion, were destined for the…
Falling U.S. factory orders reflect economic slowdown
New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell in November, the latest government data showed, consistent with a broader economic slowdown observed at the end of the year. According to a report from Yahoo Finance, factory orders fell 0.4% after rising 0.5% in October. The decline in factory orders highlights ongoing challenges facing the manufacturing industry. Also read: Post-Christmas rejection surge in U.S. truckload market The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.3% of the U.S. economy, continues to deal with the impact of the Federal Reserve's sharp tightening of monetary policy over the past two years. Aggressive strategies aimed at controlling inflation had a significant impact on production levels. IndexBox data further showed that broader economic pressures affected business spending, as evidenced by a 0.9% decline in orders for non-defense capital goods. Despite these challenges, there are optimistic signs of recovery. The Institute for Supply Management recently reported that its purchasing managers' index rose to a nine-month high, pointing to a…
US port strike looms: Surcharges send freight rates soaring
Shipping lines prepare for disruption on January 15 The upcoming January 15, 2025, strike by dockworkers on the East Coast of the United States is having an impact on the logistics industry, pushing up freight rates and triggering surcharges from major shipping companies. Negotiations between longshoremen and terminal operators remain deadlocked, prompting industry stakeholders to brace for major supply chain disruptions. Also read: Contract talks stalled, East Coast port strikes loom, carriers brace for fallout Leading carriers launch surcharges To mitigate the potential impact, carriers including Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have announced surcharges on several routes. Maersk: USD 1,500 per TEU, rising to USD 3,780 for a 45-foot container. CMA CGM: USD 800 per TEU for exports and USD 1,500 for imports. lloyd table: Work interruption surcharge applicable to multiple regions, with additional charges for East Asian imports. Freight rates on major routes rise Freight rates climbed sharply, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the strike. Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI)…
Starbucks on track for strong rebound in 2025 under new leadership
Starbucks expects a major turnaround in 2025, driven by a new strategy under new CEO Brian Niccol. Yahoo Finance reported that Niccol launched initiatives focused on faster service times, simpler pricing and improved store operations aimed at re-establishing Starbucks stock as a strong player in the market. BTIG restaurant analyst Peter Saleh said these focused strategies are expected to lay the foundation for impressive same-store sales and earnings growth as we enter 2026, which could drive Starbucks shares higher. Saleh emphasized that Starbucks is one of his most valued stocks in the first half of 2025 and expects its stock price to rise 30% from current levels, with a price target of $115. Although 2025 is a transformation and investment phase for Starbucks, this year is expected to be critical in achieving a sustainable transformation. IndexBox platform data supports this trajectory by showing key market trends that point to a recovery in key coffee markets, particularly North America, consistent with…
CMA CGM postpones key U.S. shipping surcharge during contract
French shipping giant CMA CGM has chosen to postpone imposing a hefty surcharge on cargo shipped to the United States. The carrier has postponed the $1,500 surcharge from January 1 to January 15 for shipments from the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East Gulf, the Red Sea and Egypt to the eastern U.S. and Gulf Coast, Yahoo Finance reported. Also read: US carrier questions CMA CGM’s detention and demurrage charges Traditionally, these peak season surcharges have been instituted to manage increased demand and recover costs associated with congestion. However, the delay comes after talks broke down in November, with talks between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX) expected to resume soon. Interestingly, CMA CGM’s choice of operating services amid geopolitical tensions also stands out. The company is considered the only major container shipping company to maintain its Red Sea operations despite the threat from Yemeni militants. This persistence contrasts with other routes that have rerouted…
BMW, Yamaha invest in U.S. rare earths startup
According to Reuters, BMW and Yamaha Motor have invested in U.S. rare earth processing startup Phoenix Tailings to increase production of rare earth metals outside China. Rare earths are key components in a variety of modern technologies, including electric vehicles and smartphones, requiring innovative solutions to diversify supply chains. The Massachusetts-based startup raised $43 million in Series B funding, with heavyweights such as BMW and Yamaha providing funding through its venture capital arm. Phoenix plans to use the funds to build a $13 million plant in Exeter, New Hampshire, that is expected to produce 200 tons of rare earths per year and is expected to be completed by June 2025. IndexBox data shows that global demand for rare earth elements continues to grow significantly, driven by their widespread use in green technology and electronics. Despite the surge in volume, traditional solvent extraction methods used to refine rare earths remain expensive and environmentally taxing. Phoenix Tailings offers a potentially breakthrough solution,…
Risk blind spots that enterprises urgently need to address
What they may not realize is that many businesses have significant risk blind spots. Most mitigate immediate threats and address more distant strategic challenges, but do not pay sufficient attention to medium-term, high-impact events that may occur. In the past, their occurrence was relatively low and thus received little attention. not now. Also read: Trump's proposed tariffs could trigger price increases and supply chain disruptions While the incoming Trump administration has generated real optimism, at least among U.S. executives, about domestic issues such as tax policy and deregulation, that optimism needs to be tempered by the practical realities facing multinational corporations with broad business interests. Risks are mitigated. All over the world. That's because a Trump presidency looks set to make an increasingly volatile world even more volatile, as security and economic shocks once thought unlikely become more likely. Trump has talked about limiting the United States' role as global policeman in the event of conflicts in Europe, the Middle…
U.S. LNG demand reaches new heights
In a major development for the U.S. energy industry, natural gas demand from LNG (liquefied natural gas) plants hit a record high of 15.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on the last day of last year. By Curtis Williams of Houston The milestone signals a bright future for the LNG industry, driven by the start-up of two new natural gas processing facilities. Also read: Nuclear-powered LNG carriers: the future of zero-emission shipping? U.S. LNG demand will rise further and is expected to rise to 17.8 bcfd next year. This growth will be driven by the commissioning of Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines, Louisiana, plant and Cheniere Energy's Phase 3 expansion in Corpus Christi, Texas. The continued surge in LNG demand is also expected to boost natural gas production within the United States, affecting prices at Henry Hub, the main U.S. natural gas exchange in Louisiana. Current natural gas prices are up 48 cents to $3.94 per million cubic feet (mcf),…
The U.S. trade deficit widens, casting a shadow on economic growth prospects
The U.S. trade deficit in goods increased more than expected in November, posing potential challenges to the U.S. economic growth trajectory. According to data reported by Reuters on December 27, 2024, the goods trade deficit widened to US$102.9 billion from US$98.3 billion in October after seasonally adjustment. Also read: US economy to keep growing through 2025 The rise in the trade deficit was driven by a rebound in imports, which surged $12 billion, or 4.5%, to $279.2 billion. Exports also grew at the same time, rising by $7.4 billion, or 4.4%, to $176.4 billion. However, this still resulted in a larger-than-expected trade deficit, defying previous forecasts of a deficit of $100.65 billion by economists surveyed. IndexBox platform data shows that November statistics show that exports in the "other goods" category fell sharply by 30.1%, while imports in the same category increased by 15.1%, leading to a widening of the deficit gap. If this trend continues, the potential for trade to…
The U.S. economy will continue to grow through 2025
According to recent forecasts, the U.S. economy is expected to continue growing through 2025, with an economic downturn unlikely. Insights from Yahoo Finance show that the U.S. economy has continued to expand since the outbreak began, and forecasters expect that trend to continue, but at a slower pace. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's November survey forecast GDP growth of 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by solid consumer spending and a resilient labor market. Also read: Resilient US economy keeps container imports strong in peak season The IndexBox platform expects key economic drivers such as consumer confidence and employment rates to remain strong, helping to sustain economic growth. Despite earlier concerns that inflation control measures could lead to a recession, the economy has shown resilience and inflation has fallen to near pre-pandemic levels thanks to the Federal Reserve's past interest rate hikes. While potential tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump pose risks to economic stability, forecasters including Goldman Sachs…
Government spending bill and U.S. stock futures rise
U.S. stock futures edged higher at the start of the week, buoyed by optimism surrounding a recent government spending bill that prevented a government shutdown and signs of cooling inflation. According to Reuters, the U.S. Congress passed the bill in time to avoid disruption to various departments, including law enforcement and national parks, ahead of the holiday season. Also read: U.S. core capital goods orders surge in November as economy recovers While Wall Street faced some challenges earlier this month after the Federal Reserve revised its forecast for 2025 interest rate cuts, recent inflation reports have eased concerns, allowing U.S. stock indexes to recover. The data also shows that the money market expects two interest rate cuts of approximately 25 basis points in 2025, and the benchmark interest rate may be adjusted to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%. As of Monday morning, trading activity reflected positive sentiment, with the Dow E-Mini rising 31 points, the S&P 500 E-Mini rising…
U.S. core capital goods orders surge in November
New orders for key U.S. manufacturing capital goods rose significantly in November, driven by strong demand for machinery and signaling a strong economy at the end of the year. Shipments of these items also increased for the second consecutive month, following encouraging consumer spending data last week, according to a Commerce Department report. Also read: U.S. shipping container imports to drop to $999 million in 2023 The economy's resilience prompted the Federal Reserve to adjust its expectations for an interest rate cut in 2025. Core capital goods orders, excluding defense and aircraft, climbed 0.7% after a slight 0.1% decline in October, beating Reuters economists' forecasts for a 0.1% rise. Meanwhile, shipments of these goods increased 0.5% after rising 0.4% the previous month, underscoring continued business investment trends. While machinery orders surged 1.0%, industries such as computers and electronics saw opposite declines. Specifically, transportation equipment orders fell 2.9%, mainly affected by a 7.0% decline in commercial aircraft orders, with Boeing's orders…
FedEx restructures fleet under US Postal Service contract
To take advantage of the expiration of a long-term contract with the U.S. Postal Service, FedEx is making a major shift in its global air cargo strategy. The shift was highlighted in the company's latest earnings briefing, Yahoo Finance sources reported. FedEx Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere emphasized the need to disrupt the fragmented and outdated air cargo market, which the company now believes is ripe for growth potential. Also Read: FedEx Restructures – Technology and People Challenges Prove to Intract FedEx has reportedly adjusted its operations to reduce U.S. domestic flight hours by 24% in the second quarter of its fiscal year as the Postal Service contract moves to UPS. This is consistent with IndexBox data, showing a global trend towards optimizing logistics operations. FedEx's revenue edged down 1% to $22 billion, while adjusted operating income fell 3% in the same period. An important part of FedEx's strategy involves implementing a color-coded simplification of its air network, known as…
US markets react as November inflation data cools
The U.S. economy is showing signs of cooling inflation, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising only 0.1% in November, less than expected. According to a recent Reuters report, this represents a softer trajectory for inflation compared with October's 0.2% increase, providing some comfort to markets facing the Fed's current monetary stance. Also Read: Dollar Hits All-Time Highs Amid Fed Signal Data from IndexBox showed that the PCE price index rose 2.4% in the year to November, up from 2.3% in October. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the core personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.1%, compared with an unrevised gain of 0.3% last month. Despite these figures, annual core inflation remained at an increase of 2.8%. Stocks showed cautious optimism, with the S&P 500 managing to pare losses to -0.51%. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell; the 10-year yield fell to 4.506% and the two-year yield fell to 4.259%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.42%. Market…
Dollar hits record highs as Fed signals
The dollar has surged to its highest level in more than two years after the Federal Reserve signaled that monetary easing may slow next year. Bloomberg reported that the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6% on Wednesday, hitting its highest point since 2022. The dollar is up about 7% for the year, suggesting it could end 2024 with its strongest performance since 2015. Also read: Dollar strengthens on Japan uncertainty, US election expectations President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to impose tough tariffs on several U.S. trading partners further amplified the gains, adding momentum as the Federal Reserve deliberates on its path to cutting interest rates. The strong performance of the U.S. economy relative to other countries further supported the dollar's appreciation. In contrast, global central banks have been forced to slash borrowing costs in response to stalling economic growth. Brendan McKenna, currency strategist at Wells Fargo, predicts that the dollar could appreciate on average 5% to 6% against G10 currencies…
The United States finally allocates $406 million to promote semiconductor development
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it has finally determined to provide US$406 million in government subsidies to Taiwan Global Wafer, aiming to significantly increase U.S. silicon wafer production. The development marks a key step in the Biden administration's strategy to strengthen the domestic semiconductor supply chain, Reuters reported. Also read: An in-depth analysis of the semiconductor and IC packaging materials landscape The grants will support projects in Texas and Missouri to facilitate the first U.S. high-volume production of 300 mm wafers for advanced semiconductors and expand production of silicon-on-insulator wafers. GlobalWfers will invest nearly $4 billion in these states, creating 1,700 construction and 880 manufacturing jobs. When it comes to the semiconductor market, data from the IndexBox platform highlights the important dynamics involved. The export value of U.S. semiconductor devices in 2023 is US$1.2 billion, with major export destinations including Thailand (US$297.9 million), China (US$166.1 million) and Costa Rica (US$128.5 million). Meanwhile, imports were valued at $720.4 million,…
Asian debt markets witness foreign capital outflows caused by U.S.
Asian debt markets took an unexpected turn, with foreign investors pulling out large sums of money in November, the first outflow in the past seven months. According to Reuters, expectations of policy changes after the Trump administration takes office, coupled with a surge in the U.S. dollar, have led to weaker investor interest. Also read: How the dollar dominates the global trade space Data collected from various regulators and bond market associations showed net withdrawals of $1.92 billion from the bond markets of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, India and South Korea. It was the first monthly net sales since April, reflecting growing investor concerns about potential trade restrictions. Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ, commented: "Markets are starting to price in the impact of the incoming Trump administration on Asia and the outlook for U.S. interest rates." This sentiment highlights investors' cautious approach to potential changes in trade dynamics. Indonesia's foreign investors pulled about $1.8 billion from its bond…
The open banking market will expand at a CAGR of 22% by 2032
According to a recent report, the global open banking market will be worth US$23.5 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$130.2 billion by the end of 2032. global market insights corp.. Also read: Generative AI in Banking: A vision for next-generation financial solutions and customer engagement Driven by technological innovations in API and data integration and the growing demand for personalized and convenient financial services, the open banking market size will show a compound annual growth rate of 22% between 2024 and 2032. Advanced APIs enable seamless integration between banks and fintechs, enhancing the accessibility and functionality of financial services. Additionally, consumers are increasingly seeking tailored and user-friendly solutions, driving financial institutions to adopt open banking. These technological breakthroughs and consumer preferences are driving market expansion as they help improve service delivery and more personalized financial experiences. For example, in May 2024, Experian launched a new open banking solution designed to enhance lending decisions and increase credit access,…
Strike fears and tariff plans drive early import surge
The looming threat of possible strikes at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports in January 2025, coupled with President-elect Trump’s proposed tariff hikes, has triggered a decline in U.S. container port import volumes, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). surge. Also read: Trump's proposed tariffs could trigger price increases and supply chain disruptions Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president of supply chain and customs policy, expressed concern about the twin challenges. "A strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are doing everything they can to avoid any impact as much as possible," he said. The urgency stems from deadlocked negotiations between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX). The two sides remain at odds over automation, with the current contract extension set to expire on Jan. 15, just days before Trump plans to impose tariffs after taking office on Jan. 20. Industry analyst Ben Hackett highlighted automation as a…
Inflation data and interest rates impact U.S. stocks lower
U.S. stocks fell on Thursday after new inflation data was released, clouding investor confidence in upcoming interest rate changes. According to Yahoo Finance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was essentially unchanged, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.5%. Also read: US expects shipping container imports to fall to $999 million in 2023 The inflation data continued the earlier narrative that the consumer price index was stimulating the market, briefly pushing the Nasdaq above the 20,000-point mark. The key data cleared the way for expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, a move that market observers all but confirmed. However, the producer price index exceeded expectations in November, rising 0.4%, higher than the 0.2% expected, fueling speculation about the Fed's next move in January. As the financial world digested these insights, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 0.5%, the largest rate cut in nearly a decade,…
U.S. spending on TikTok store surges during holidays
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. TikTok users are turning to TikTok Shop during the holidays this year, significantly increasing spending on the platform. According to Reuters analysis, TikTok Shop has successfully captured a larger share of the e-commerce market since its launch in the United States in September 2023. Also Read: Artificial Intelligence: The driving force behind logistics for the 2024 holiday season TikTok Shop's meteoric success was reflected in sales reaching $100 million on Black Friday, a major shopping day when U.S. consumers eagerly seek online deals. Despite looming regulatory challenges, such as a potential U.S. ban on its parent company ByteDance, TikTok Shop remains a strong sales channel for brands like Elf Cosmetics and Ninja Kitchen. U.S. merchants and influencers take advantage of the “LIVE” feature, which allows customers to purchase items directly during live video conferences. The number of such live sessions has reportedly tripled over the past year, capitalizing on TikTok's 170 million U.S. users and…
US approves export of advanced artificial intelligence chips to UAE
The U.S. government has approved the export of cutting-edge artificial intelligence chips to a facility operated by Microsoft in the United Arab Emirates as part of a partnership with Emirati artificial intelligence company G42. Axios reported the development, citing people familiar with the matter. Also read: Semiconductor memory market to reach $340 billion by 2032 The export approval is consistent with strong international trade activity in the U.S. electronic chip industry. IndexBox platform data shows that the total export volume of U.S. electronic chips in 2023 will reach US$42.4 billion. Major export partners include Mexico ($11.9 billion), China ($5.1 billion) and Taiwan ($4.6 billion). A partnership between Microsoft and G42 could open new avenues for U.S. companies engaged in high-tech exports. In addition, U.S. electronic chip imports in 2023 will be worth US$35.5 billion, showing the country's strong reliance on imports to meet its technology needs. The largest import partners include Malaysia ($9.6 billion), Taiwan ($7.3 billion) and South Korea…
Trump’s proposed tariffs could trigger price hikes
President-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico has raised concerns among experts about potential negative impacts on North American companies and global supply chains. For more details, you can read the full article on the potential impact of these tariffs here. On his first day in office, Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Also read: Strike fears and potential tariff hikes drive import surge at U.S. ports As stated on Truth Social on November 25, these tariffs are part of Trump’s “America First” strategy to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Industry professionals such as CH Robinson's Sri Laxmana and Fictiv's Andy Sherman are highly concerned about these looming changes, which will have significant implications for global supply chains. The non-knitted men's apparel market will be one of the industries severely affected by these tariffs. According to IndexBox data, China…
U.S. and Chinese tariffs weigh on copper prices
As 2025 approaches, copper prices are expected to face significant challenges as additional U.S. trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and uncertainty about the Chinese economy severely impact consumption and price expectations. Citigroup said it expects copper prices to average US$8,750 per ton in 2025, down significantly from its previous forecast of US$10,250 per ton. Analysts pointed to restrictive monetary conditions in advanced economies and reduced policy support for electric vehicles as factors that have delayed the recovery of global manufacturing activity until after 2025. Also read: The best copper import markets in the world The London Metal Exchange reported that copper in Shanghai was trading at $9,100.50 a ton, down 20% from a record high in May, due to lower demand from China and a stronger dollar. Despite the potential for fiscal stimulus from Asia's largest economy, President-elect Donald Trump's intention to impose a 60% tariff on imports from China and impose additional tariffs on goods from other…
Automation standoff leads to inevitable U.S. strikes in January
Hopes for a resolution to the standoff between longshoremen and port employers along the U.S. Eastern and Gulf Coast are fading, with strikes in January now looking inevitable. The main sticking point remains port automation, despite a tentative agreement on wages and a temporary end to a three-day port closure in October. Also read: Strike fears and potential tariff hikes drive import surge at U.S. ports Negotiations deadlocked The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX) have agreed to extend the current prime contract and negotiations until January 15, just days before the start of President Donald Trump's term. However, the ILA is staunchly opposed to automation, leading to a deadlock in negotiations. USMX maintains that the adoption of modern and advanced technologies is critical to increasing the capabilities and sustainability of the U.S. maritime industry. With limited land available in most ports, increasing the density of existing terminals through automation is seen as the only…
U.S. air traffic controller shortage brings aviation industry to a standstill
The ongoing shortage of air traffic controllers (ATCs) in the United States is hampering the growth of commercial aviation and has a knock-on effect on the air cargo industry. Also read: US allocates $105 billion to strengthen airport airlift and traffic control United Airlines has been particularly vocal about the issue, pointing to flight disruptions at its main transatlantic hub, Newark International Airport. The airline reported delays, cancellations, extended flight times and extended taxi slots on nearly half of the days in November. The root of the problem is air traffic control staffing, which last month was 59% below target levels. This shortage is not unique to Newark. It reflects a national crisis. In response, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) temporarily reduced flight demand at New York City-area airports until October 2024. This problem is not new. A 2022 report showed that 77% of critical ATC facilities in the United States are understaffed. Canada is facing similar challenges, with Navigation…
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