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U.S. and Chinese tariffs weigh on copper prices

As 2025 approaches, copper prices are expected to face significant challenges as additional U.S. trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and uncertainty about the Chinese economy severely impact consumption and price expectations. Citigroup said it expects copper prices to average US$8,750 per ton in 2025, down significantly from its previous forecast of US$10,250 per ton. Analysts pointed to restrictive monetary conditions in advanced economies and reduced policy support for electric vehicles as factors that have delayed the recovery of global manufacturing activity until after 2025.

Also read: The best copper import markets in the world

The London Metal Exchange reported that copper in Shanghai was trading at $9,100.50 a ton, down 20% from a record high in May, due to lower demand from China and a stronger dollar. Despite the potential for fiscal stimulus from Asia’s largest economy, President-elect Donald Trump’s intention to impose a 60% tariff on imports from China and impose additional tariffs on goods from other regions has added a dark cloud to the outlook for metals.

According to data from the IndexBox platform, U.S. copper exports will be worth $1.5 billion in 2023, with major export destinations including Mexico ($1.3 billion), Canada ($69.8 million) and Germany ($67.3 million). Meanwhile, the United States imported $6.6 billion worth of copper, with the largest import sources coming from Chile ($4.6 billion), Canada ($1.1 billion) and Peru ($672.8 million).

Citi analysts expect “the refined copper market to level out next year,” with stagnant demand from cyclical consumption and rising decarbonization use offset by continued below-average mine supply growth. They predict prices could reach $10,000 by 2026, depending on a recovery in global manufacturing driven by monetary easing.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

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