Freight vision: ceasefire and seasonal slow driving driver

Driven by the ceasefire in the Middle East and the typical lunar New Year, the transportation rate of marine containers is expected to further decline in February, even if the airline tries to control its capabilities.

Also read: When Suez is open again and promotes market fluctuations in the Lunar New Year, the spot rate of the container has plummeted

The data of Xeneta shows that since January 1, the current spot rate has declined significantly, and the route from Far East to Nordic has decreased by 22 % to $ 3,795. On the Mediterranean lane $ 3085. Early signals show that in early February, these rates may increase by 5-10 %.

In the United States, the trend is similar. In January, the interest rate on the east coast fell 7 % to $ 6,417, while the interest rate on the West Coast fell 14 % to $ 5,021. Although the speed of the east coast may be stable, it is expected to decrease further on the West Coast.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, explained: “The ceasefire in the Middle East did not immediately open the Red Sea of ​​all container ships, but it has changed market emotions enough to affect the freight rate.”

In response to these declines, the carrier is tightening its ability management. The forecast shows that the blank navigation from the Far East to the Mediterranean will soar to 38,900 TEU (increased 318 %) in late February, and similar routes to Northern Europe are expected to reach 75,700 TEU, marking 449 % of the growth.

The current ceasefire began on January 19, and it is scheduled to enter the second stage of the second stage for 42 days, which can pave the way for long -term solutions. However, Sand warned that the development of February will be the key to understanding the trajectory in 2025.

Despite recently decreased, the scene rate is still higher than the Red Sea crisis level. The market challenge plus the influx of the new ship. If it combines it with the rejuvenation of the Red Sea route, it may take a wider risk of market collapse. In addition, the imminent geopolitical pressure (including potential Trump tariffs) may raise interest rates again.