E-commerce boom insulates air cargo from volatility

The air cargo industry is facing continued volatility as changing global conditions threaten to dampen demand. Although air cargo volumes surged 18% last year, Scan Global Logistics (SGL) warned that double-digit growth may not be achieved in 2025.

Also read: Air cargo growth to slow in 2025

SGL attributed last year’s strong performance to shipping disruptions caused by the Red Sea crisis. However, recent progress in addressing attacks in the region may reduce reliance on air cargo, potentially affecting near-term demand.

David Jinks, head of consumer research at Parcelhero UK, highlighted further challenges, including possible policy shifts under the new US administration. “Traders driving growth in US online sales may face increased scrutiny from the IRS, while Trump-era tariffs could redirect UK manufacturers towards the EU,” Jinks explained.

Meanwhile, a report from Danish shipping giant Maersk highlighted the growing trend of localization and regional supply chains. Factors such as the need for faster delivery, lower costs and mitigating geopolitical risks are driving companies to establish manufacturing centers closer to consumers. This shift poses a long-term threat to long-haul air cargo demand.

Other challenges cited by Maersk include rising energy costs, geopolitical tensions and volatile global trading conditions. It highlights the importance of agility for businesses and governments to respond to these uncertainties.

Despite these headwinds, SGL remains optimistic about the resilience of the air cargo market, mainly due to continued growth in e-commerce. Platforms such as TikTok and Instagram have further accelerated this trend by venturing into live shopping.

“Last year, TikTok live shopping drove daily sales growth of 93%,” Jinks noted. “As social commerce expands, content creation and AI-driven marketing will continue to fuel demand.”

Maersk’s report also forecasts stable economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region, which is the main driver of global air cargo demand. Growth in the region is expected to reach 4.4% in 2025, supported by strong domestic demand and improving labor markets, with recovery from supply chain disruptions expected to support air cargo volumes.

While geopolitical and economic changes may pose challenges for long-haul air cargo, the industry’s combination with e-commerce growth and regional manufacturing trends is expected to maintain its key role in global trade.