Musk’s Cybercab dream may hit 2,500-vehicle limit in US

Elon Musk promised “very high” production volumes for the Tesla Cybercab when he unveiled it late last week. Bold words, but Tesla still has a lot of nasty regulatory hurdles to overcome before this fully self-driving car can hit the production line, let alone start mass production.

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Like Tesla’s other vehicles, the Cybercab relies on the company’s vision-only self-driving technology, but with one twist: There’s no steering wheel, no pedals, and no controls whatsoever. While this would make sense for a vehicle that could drive 100% autonomously without any human intervention, actually getting approval to put such a vehicle on public roads wouldn’t be easy.

Read: Tesla Cybercab is a $30,000 robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals

For any automaker that wants to launch a car without standard ride controls, it must obtain permission from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to do so. Back in 2022, GM tried to get a waiver to launch a robotaxi without normal controls, but two years later, GM gave up on the request after not receiving a response.

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According to Bloomberg, if Tesla does get approval from NHTSA to launch Cybercab, current regulations would only allow it to deploy 2,500 vehicles per year without steering wheels and pedals. That’s not enough to achieve Musk’s goal of operating a massive fleet of robot taxis in the United States. Bryant Walker, a law professor at the University of South Carolina and an expert on self-driving cars, said “exemptions are not a viable path for large-scale manufacturers” unless “Congress raises this limit.”

Musk insists Tesla will start manufacturing Cybercab by 2027, even though they haven’t even applied for the necessary NHTSA exemption. Maybe they’re delaying for dramatic effect, or maybe Tesla is just business as usual and the deadline seems more like a suggestion.

On top of that, Tesla also needs to contend with state-level regulations. Tesla does not have a license for self-driving testing or deployment in California, and it could be years before it can get one. It also requires providing comprehensive testing data to the state. It might be easier to get Cybercab on the road in states like Texas, but even there Tesla faces an uphill battle to prove the technology is ready for prime time.

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