Shipping trends and expected disruptions in 2025

Mike Short, President of Global Freight at CH Robinson, provides insights into the trends and potential risks shippers need to understand as they plan for 2025 in an increasingly disruptive transportation environment. With over 27 years of experience in global logistics and leading CH Robinson’s global freight department, which handles approximately 6,000 air and ocean shipments daily, Mike has seen and experienced a lot in the logistics world. Mike believes that as the new year approaches, here are some key factors that shippers need to pay attention to:

Also Read: Supply Chain Forecast 2025

As 2025 approaches, the global supply chain landscape is facing major changes. Global shippers are dealing with challenges such as changing ocean carrier alliances, new government administrations, possible port strikes and geopolitical conflicts. These events are already straining supply chains, and the situation is expected to intensify as we enter the first quarter.

As global supply chains become increasingly complex, the most important factor in coping with ongoing disruptions and building supply chain resiliency is anticipating what is to come.

1. Changes in global trade

Tariffs are at the top of many people’s minds as 2024 will bring many trade and tariff changes, and we expect more to come in the coming months. For example, the EU recently imposed a 35.5% tariff on electric vehicles imported from China. With more than half the world voting this year, there are likely to be more changes to global trade as new leadership takes office. For example, US President-elect Donald Trump has stated that he plans to use tariffs during his term in office. Other leaders have also responded, which could trigger a cascade of trade changes around the world that could lead to changes in supply chains.

Many shippers began diversifying a few years ago after the pandemic highlighted the need for greater supply chain agility, but they didn’t start diversifying from the start. In fact, especially on the trans-Pacific route, we saw China’s imports from the United States decrease by 8% from 2017 to 2023. At the same time, the rest of Southeast Asia, Mexico, Canada, India, and even some European countries are growing almost across the board. Clearly, shippers are already making changes to their supply chains to optimize their resiliency, and we expect this trend to continue.

In addition to nearshoring/reshoring or decoupling from China, shippers are also looking to diversify across modes, such as ocean to air, full container load (FCL) to less than container load (LCL), and even transhipment inland strategies. During the recent U.S. port strikes, we helped many shippers execute different inland strategies, such as transloading, to make up for time lost while cargo was stuck in port.

2. Changes in ocean carrier strategies

The new ocean carrier alliance controls 60% of the global container market and is bound to bring a degree of market disruption, as we have seen with past alliance shifts. For example, while Gemini Partners’ strategy aims to halve the number of port calls between Asia and Northern Europe, thereby shaving days off shipping times, smaller ports could disappear from the route entirely. This shift will not only impact ocean shipping schedules, but may also change the way freight moves inland. Transatlantic trade will also undergo changes as Ocean Alliance and Super Alliance collaborate, which will eliminate capacity between North America and Europe.

Another example is Peru’s new Chancay port, which aims to shorten shipping times between Latin America and Asia by more than 10 days, bypassing traditional routes through the United States. Even if you are not shipping between Asia and Peru, it is important to know that not only do new routes bypass major consuming countries, they may also change rates and available capacity on other routes as a result.

3. Workers strike

Many countries, including Canada, the United States, Brazil, Australia, Italy and India, have experienced port, rail and/or customs strikes this year. A surge in labor strikes began in 2023, with activity increasing by 280% year-on-year. This trend continues in 2024 and is not expected to slow down. CH Robinson is already helping shippers prepare for the possibility of a second U.S. port strike in January. Industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals are particularly eager to develop contingency plans because even a two-day strike could severely disrupt operations due to their just-in-time inventory patterns.

4. Front loading

Potential strikes, pending tariffs and the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday are prompting shippers to load freight early. While front-loading is typically done via ocean freight, we have seen some priority freight shift to air freight in anticipation of a possible second strike at U.S. ports.

This behavior is not new—as early as 2018, some shippers increased production and stored cargo ahead of U.S. Section 301 tariffs taking effect. The difference today is that advance loading is a common approach for many shippers. We’ll be watching to see how an increased focus on frontloading in 2025 may impact freight patterns this year.

5. e-commerce boom

The ongoing shift in air capacity to support e-commerce activity out of Asia continues to impact other routes. Freight rates on transatlantic routes have surged recently as aircraft were reallocated across the Pacific for e-commerce shipments. This shift in capacity has resulted in increased capacity at the expense of smaller capacity routes, a trend expected to continue as e-commerce demand in Asia remains strong.

The industry will continue to have a significant impact on global air cargo supply and demand, so it is worth watching. As aviation forecasting becomes increasingly difficult, it is key to add flexibility into your strategy and assess which cargo is urgent and needs to be transported by air freight, not only to reduce risk but also to save costs.

6. Geopolitical events

Global geopolitical conflicts continue to impact supply chains. Airlines are avoiding Russian airspace as skies over the region remain closed due to the war in Ukraine, forcing airlines to take longer routes over the Middle East. Now, as tensions rise in the Middle East, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and political changes in Syria, other routes may need to be adjusted. Additionally, diversions of the Red Sea and Suez Canal starting in October 2023 continue to significantly reduce slot capacity, disrupt schedule reliability, and cause port congestion around the world.

go ahead

Going into 2025, diversification of supply chain agility will remain critical as it adapts to the changing market conditions likely to result from the topics I mentioned. Shippers have made significant progress in this area over the past few years, but there is still much work to be done. As an asset-light company, we are well-positioned to help clients build greater agility and flexibility across their entire supply chain because they are not tied to a single trade lane, region or mode. This is critical so that when there is a disruption in one area of ​​the supply chain, we are able to strategize and divert our customers’ freight to keep them functioning despite the challenging circumstances.

These trends are just a few of the trends shaping global supply chains in 2025. Sustainability, GenAI, etc. will also have an impact. Keep in mind that every topic I mention will have ripple effects throughout the supply chain. Maritime disruptions or port strikes can severely impact trucking and rail transport – just to name a few.

Healthy and responsible supply chains start with understanding their interconnectedness. Being able to see the whole picture – that’s what our team does every day. In the new year, initiate conversations about these topics and ask questions about the tailwind effect. This will help you anticipate potential challenges and opportunities and determine the best strategies to protect your supply chain and business goals.