The trade war in 2025 has begun

President Donald Trump was busy two weeks before his office. However, the most important heritage of his 47th government so far was on Saturday, when he imposed 25 % tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 % of its tariffs on China.

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Tariffs are the main platform for President Trump during the campaign, so few people expect him not to comply. President’s tariffs based on the IEEP of the International Emergency Economic Power (IEEP), which argued that illegal immigrants and smuggling hazardous drugs to the country constitute an imminent threat for them. However, the uncertainty of the actual impact around the tariff is still in the fierce debate.

The three most risky departments are energy, automobiles and agriculture. In 2023, Canada pumped 60 % of US crude oil imports. The central and western refineries combine Canada’s heavy crude oil with the lighter domestic crude oil, but the price can almost rise, because the supply of Canadian heavy crude oil alternatives is insufficient.

In the vast majority of 2024, about 500,000 barrels of crude oil transported from Mexico to the United States were sent to the refinery along the Gulf of Mexico. It is now expected to transfer some percentage to Europe or Asia. It is expected that the American Atlantic Coast Automobile Fuv market will be hit most serious and regional natural gas differences may also be affected, which will eventually increase consumer prices.

Last year, Mexico provided approximately 43 % of imported motorized body parts to the United States, and car prices would be closely monitored. Canada plays a role at more than 25 %, and most of the major automakers will be affected by more than 40 % of Volkswagen sold in the United States.

In terms of agriculture, the United States imports 23 % of all agricultural imports from Mexico, 63 % of which are vegetable imports, and 47 % are nuts and fruit imports. The production time of agriculture is short, so the price will respond quickly. However, products with a more complex supply chain may take time to incorporate the final cost of tariffs in their purchase price.

China, Mexico and Canada imported 536 billion Canadian dollars, $ 455 billion and $ 437 billion in 2022, respectively. Responsible federal budget committees estimate that tariffs in these three countries may generate $ 1.3 trillion in income. In the case of President Trump, tax reduction and exemption measures are almost certain, and it is expected to cost $ 5 trillion in 10 years. The additional 1.3 trillion US dollars will offset any location between 15 % and 20 %, but this is not assuming that tariff revenge and the decline in GDP in the United States.

At the same time, the revenge has begun. Last weekend, Canada announced a 25 % US import tax. Wine, Bourbon whiskey and beer and juice, household appliances and sports equipment will face higher import duties. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is implementing the “Plan B” she created, which is a combination of tariffs and non -timely measures. China is proposing formal complaints to the World Trade Organization, but it has not announced formal retaliatory tariffs.