When Suez is open and new in the lunar calendar

After the recent Hamas-Israel ceased fire, under the driver of the Chinese Lunar New Year celebration and the recovery of the Suez Canal transition, container spot freight rates have dropped sharply this week. The development of these situations is sweeping the market and enlarging volatility on key trade lanes.

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Druori’s World Container Index (WCI) records a large number of declines. The transdiflow spot rate on the Shanghai Los Angeles route has decreased by 8 % to $ 4,813 per 40 feet. It was 7 % and closed at $ 6,377 per 40 feet. At the same time, XSI Transpacific Index of XENETA dropped by 3 % and landed at $ 5,162 per 40 feet.

However, the biggest reduction rate occurred in Asia-Europe transactions. In this transaction, people worry that the concerns of war have been realized. The Shanghai-Roddan route of WCI is 40 feet a week, $ 3,434 a week, a year-on-year decrease of 31 %. Similarly, Shanghai Genoa’s legs fell 10 %, and the cost of $ 4,562 per 40 feet was $ 4,562.

A report about discounts or even steep appeared, the tax rate of some Chinese currency was as low as $ 2,300 per 40 feet, and the market index of the British port was as low as $ 1,000 to each container.

The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), which tracks forward -looking exchange rate quotes, will also decrease. Although SCFI reflects a mild decline-6 ​​% on the Shanghai Nordic route, Analyments predicts that due to the transition of Lunar New Year Meat Lull and CEASEFIRE, it will remain quiet in the next few weeks.

The reorganization of the Suez Canal is expected to have the most significant impact. SEA-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy warned that restoring Soyz’s transit may trigger a crisis of excessive capacity, which destroyed the increase in freight rates of improving services from Africa during the Red Sea crisis.

Murphy said: “If the aircraft carrier resumes the Susi route, the rate will be tank.” “The high rate is maintained by the long African bypass ability. Returning to Suez can restore the supply and demand balance to the end of 2023.”

As FreightOS director Judah Levine pointed out, short -term interference is expected to be expected. The transition to a shorter Suez route may lead to the adjustment of European and Asian ports and ship congestion, which may lead to the peak of temporary interest rates.

However, in the long run, Murphy’s forecast rate has declined sharply. “From a historical point of view, operators have been working hard to manage softly. Once the Suez route is completely reopened, we are likely to see the low point of interest rates returning to 2023 “” “

The spot rate from Asia to Northern Europe has hovered on the almost threshold for losses last year. Suez’s recovery marks the key inflection point of the container transportation market and test the elasticity of operators in the turbulent waters of the turbulent waters.